No relief for fab tool market until 2H '03, says report
Semiconductor Business News
(10/14/02 05:44 p.m. EST)
NEW YORK--Worldwide orders for semiconductor equipment are projected to plummet in the third and fourth quarters of 2002, with a possible recovery due in the second half of 2003, according to a report from SG Cowen Securities Corp. here today.
One of the problems for tool makers is sluggish demand in Taiwan, as the island's silicon foundry providers are expected to cut their capital spending plans in 2002--again (see Sept. 30 story ).
There is also soft demand in other regions as well. “Overcapacity and continued weakness will likely result in several more [quarters] of capex cuts, pushouts, and [estimate] reductions,?according to the report from SG Cowen. “Expect Q3 bookings for front-end [companies] to be down by 20% [and] Q4 likely down by 15%,?according to the report.
It looks like a mixed bag in 2003, but a gradual recovery is expected by mid-2003, according to the report. “Assuming flattish orders [in the first half of 2003], we project 2003 bookings growth of 5-10%,?the report said.
But still, the news looks bleak for the remainder of 2002. Applied Materials Inc., for example, is expected to report a profit of $0.07 per share on sales of $1.45 billion for its fourth fiscal quarter. But the company will also show a 20% decline in bookings in the period, with another 15-20% drop in the first fiscal quarter, the report said.
KLA-Tencor Inc. is projected to report a profit of $0.22 a share on sales of $375 million in its first fiscal quarter, but orders are expected to fall 15-20% in that period, the report said.
Lam Research Inc. is expected to report a loss of minus $0.01 per share on sales of $195 million, but orders will fall 15% in the period, the report said.
Novellus Systems Inc. will report a loss of minus $0.24 per share on sales of $225 million for the third quarter. Orders are expected to decline 25-30% in the period, the report added.
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