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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH
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To: Mr. Whist who wrote (308597)10/15/2002 3:22:34 PM
From: H-Man  Read Replies (1) of 769670
 
The Zogby poll had Bush up by several points before the release of his no contest on the DUI. After that, he had it a dead heat. Never was it a landslide.

Your memory is flawed.

In order to have a poll that will be reflective of the election, you need to have a decent number of "likely voters". Polls of "adults" and "registered voters" are not accurate predictors of elections.

Since all of the elections in question are local, there would need to be a much higher number across a large geography to be meaningful. The margin of error in this poll, is only reflective of the audience: "Adults" - needs to be "likely voters" to have meaning. Zogby, historically the most accurate pollster uses 1000 likely voters plus other demographic factors.

You cannot have a scientifically accurate poll without sufficiently large number.
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