Intel's Itanium: Before Its Time or Just in Time?
Tue Oct 15, 1:39 PM ET
Mike Martin, www.NewsFactor.com
As the latest 64-bit microprocessor to hit the market, Intel's (Nasdaq: INTC - news) Itanium 2 has been buffeted by rumors, hype and slower-than-expected adoption. All of the chaos surrounding the chip's introduction has made it difficult to discern its true role in the overall marketplace. Will Itanium 2 be a championship contender, or will it fade into the background, eclipsed by newer offerings?
According to Intel's product literature, of course, Itanium is here to stay. "Itanium architecture does far more than just extend the Intel architecture to 64 bits," the company states. "The uniquely designed EPIC (Explicitly Parallel Instruction Computing) architecture allows the highest possible performance via new levels of parallelism for enterprise and technical applications." In other words, the chip is designed for use in large databases, business intelligence and data mining, security transactions and high-performance computing.
Intel executives were not available for further comment.
Snags and Pitfalls
But Itanium has hit some snags on its path to dominance. Most recently, a U.S. federal court ruled that Intel's Itanium technology violated patents owned by Intergraph (Nasdaq: INGR - news). And, perhaps predictably, Sun Microsystems (Nasdaq: SUNW - news) spokesperson Jennifer Heltzel told NewsFactor that delays hurt Intel's chances to succeed with Itanium.
"In the current economic environment, information technology managers are very risk-averse to new offerings that might let them down or add costs to their IT programs -- particularly with regard to headaches surrounding software maintenance and tuning," Heltzel said. "Had Intel kept to its development schedule and had this processor out in the late 1990s, when the market was open to new alternatives, it would have a better chance. But most bets have been placed, customers prefer to stick with proven solutions, and it increasingly looks like Itanium may have missed its technology adoption and market windows."
The Truth Between
The reality may be somewhere in between. Semiconductor and microprocessing expert Bob Markunas of Ziptronix told NewsFactor that Intel's Itanium 2 is a "transition product" that will pave the way for a mainstream 64-bit chip market.
He said few applications have been written to take advantage of the new chip's capabilities.
"No one can afford to be too far ahead of the market, [so] it will take a while for the software guys to get new versions -- true 64-bit and up," Markunas noted. "But this is classic chicken and egg -- unless 64-bit systems are available, no one will write the code."
By creating the "chicken" -- Itanium -- Intel is helping to lay the golden egg of innovation by making 64-bit machines enough of a reality to convince software developers and early adopters to get on board, he said.
Beware Unproven Tech?
But companies should not be too quick to jump on the bandwagon with an unproven technology, according to small business expert and author Joshua Feinberg. "I see so many small companies waste sickening amounts of money buying PCs with the wrong chips relative to their true business needs," he told NewsFactor.
According to Feinberg, companies should follow a few simple rules to avoid potential pitfalls of new technology.
Don't be the first on the block to buy something new without a really good reason and a cost that can be justified.
Don't skimp on power users who run high-end software.
Avoid letting egos influence PC purchase decisions.
Don't let a budget surplus burn a hole in your pocket or drive up PC support costs.
Reallocate the PC hardware budget to achieve the greatest impact.
Don't become a PC vendor's science experiment.
No Guarantee
In other words, although Itanium may be a promising new technology and may eventually overcome its slow start to achieve real growth, there is no guarantee.
"Itanium 2 makes the emergence of a mainstream 64-bit market more of a reality and is thus an important and necessary product in the global sense, but it is a transition product nonetheless," Markunas said.
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...Hmmm, coincidence or not...SGI & INTC closed up 9.4%...
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