"Although the financial news spin today is decidedly bullish, I just don't see the bullish data to support the spin. "Investors giddy on good earnings news", U.S. stocks skyrocket following rosy earnings, etc. just does not jibe with:
* additional layoffs from Sun and Lucent,
* GM losses,
* higher oil prices,
* the horrendous explosion on Bali,
* more saber-rattling in the middle east,
* Waksal guilty of insider trading,
* criminal investigations against all the major brokerages and investment banks,
* potential bank failures in Germany and elsewhere,
* Japan's 10-year mess only getting worse and worse as the JCB buys the Nikkei,
* the possibility of outright deflation in Germany but the ECB's hands tied unable to raise rates throughout disparate parts the EuroZone,
* downgrades of JPM debt,
* insurers' lawsuits over Enron,
* consumers overextended,
* record personal bankruptcies,
* record mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures,
* automakers fighting to the death by suicidally offering zero/zero/zero financing, "eating their own children", so to speak, by glutting the market with new vehicles at a loss
* "all-inventory-must-go" type going-out-of-business sales by the local furniture chains,
* credit cards offers for a free $20,000 cash advance with zero percent interest locked in for the rest of the year and no fee,
* unbelievably wide spreads between perceived low-risk treasuries and high-risk corporate bonds
* etc.
It just does not jibe. What I see through all the rah-rah news is dismal.
So something's gotta give. I think it will be the stock market. " |
