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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: The Freep who wrote (56585)	10/15/2002 10:47:58 PM
From: reaper	Read Replies (1) of 209892

in the FWIW department on the SOX... since the bear started there have been 7 instances where the SOX has been +7%-plus on a daily basis twice within 7 trading sessions. the big moves on Friday (+8.4%) and today would make this instance #8. in 6 of those seven instances, the SOX proceeded to take a decent dump in the next 10 trading days; the smallest fall (from close on big move day #2 to the min of the next 10 trading days) was 3.9%; the largest 16.1%; the average 9.7%; and the median 8.2%. also in 6 of those 7 instances (though not the same 6, unfortunately) the SOX went on to make a new HIGH relative to the close on big move day #2 (and in the last instance it came within a couple of points). interestingly, there have been a bunch of random one-day +7%-plus moves (i.e. with no follow-up +7%-plus move within the next 6 trading days); these more often than not seem to quickly reverse into new lows. so anyway, for those looking for this to revert to new lows without some more upside first, recent history would seem to suggest otherwise. (of course, the contrarian would say that to the extent that a pattern is well enough defined that even i notice it its time for said pattern to go away) Cheers

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