That's an interesting timetable, to be sure.
I didn't see any direct specs on the Valence website for the first-generation phosphate cells (speaking loosely, apologies to M_e!), but vaguely recall that they were quoted as simply 'comparable' to the previous Manganese-based polymer cells.
The large-formate MnO2 cells shown on the website have a volumetric energy density of 260 watt-hours/liter (simple math), very close to the first hurdle for the first-gen phosphate cells in the 13D filing. This was probably chosen as a hurdle they already have beaten.
The second milestone refers to having produced samples in cylindrical format. I don't know if Valence will do this alone in the lab, or if they will do it in conjunction with a potential licensee. But it is probably intended to be suggestive of the timeline for delivery of sample liquid-electrolyte lithium-ion cells being sent out to customers for testing.
The third milestone, regarding obtaining any funding beyond Dec'02, is intended to lay out the timeline for when one of the second-hurdle testers accepts the materials and signs an agreement. Granted, if cash is sufficient or if VLNC is close, this event could be delayed well into spring by mutual agreement with papa berg. It wouldn't be the first time that timelines were 'stretched' here. 3 months to test and sign on the line is not realistic. Give it 6-9 at the earliest. Just a WAG.
The teaser is the final hurdle... not only will the second gen have capacity of 420 wh/l (and they would not proffer this number if they didn't have some successful small-scale lab test validating this, I will wager), but VLNC will also have scaled up for manufacturing.
So there you have it: they don't really expect to sell first-gen polymer cells, but the second-gens ought to get someone to bite.
Unless one of these post-docs at a university gets the olivine structures (patent owned by the competition) to also provide such energy densities, as suggested by the MIT article recently. Of course, cycling and temperature range and current draw are features to be looking for.
Well, VLNC is trying to suggest to us to 'hang in there' for another year, that there really really REALLY is a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. No, really!
Tough environment to sell a 'story' into. But lucky they don't have to go to a bank for credit, they have papa berg, and he doesn't seem to want to kill them off but actually sustain them. So the worst case for the stock is a dead money state for some time... assuming there's beef in those specs listed in that filing... |
