Hi nspolar,
Thanks for the decisionpoint links, which I finally got around to looking at.
The treasury chart looks to me like it is set-up for a bowl-shaped rise from here, or from a spike down that would occur very soon if it comes at all. That is not an Elliot view of the chart, of course. Maybe more like a Droke view. My pea brain had a hard time finding a clear Elliot structure.
Your observations on gold interest me. A lot of the juniors have hit decent lows recently, and I'd be surprised if they went significantly lower (but then again, I never imagined GBGLF at 60 cents and it hit that yesterday). I have some cash to employ on a further drop, but have gone to an 80% PM position, not wanting to get too cute on picking a bottom.
None of those Rydex ratio charts have V bottoms ... every turn is either gradual or takes a month or so. Now with the market doing what it has in the past two weeks, I assume the fund ratios corrected quite a bit, making a V and therefore not good "bottom" material.
I agree we are going to see a rebound to higher areas (8800 is my target) that will make for tasty shorts, but if we're not too greedy, already we are in an area primed for some short-term winnings. I bought Nov QQQ 21 and DJX 78 puts yesterday (minor positions) near their lows to play a fall back to the 7800 area. Max Pain for the QQQ is between 21 and 22 for Oct and Nov, so that is a good bet with QQQ at better than 23 on yesterday's close. It's a small chance to get a full-blown panic right now ... what do the Rydex charts show for Oct 87?
Regards,
crusty |
