Strictly: Drilling II Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II

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To: Frank Pembleton who started this subject	10/16/2002 10:17:56 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	of 36161

Rally ? - what rally, anyone see a rally (vbg) ? BAMM ! ...DOW 8150 pre-open....8119 presently. What GE & Citi giveth... Intel & reality taketh away. It's STILL the VALUATIONS - stupid ~ It's STILL the FUNDAMENTALS - or more apprapo, the lack there of... It's STILL the unprecedented degree of SYSTEMIC RISK & ROGUE WAVE Event clouds over-hanging the GLOBAL geopolitical AND economic horizon. ...the BEAR is alive and well. - so it is written, so it shall be done ~ PS: per subprimes... COF/Capitol One down -18% ... all pigs. PS S: did you see the great private LBO fund guest that CNBC had on early this morning ? - BUT ! (let's not give credit, where credit isn't due (VBG) - as CNBC's spin & reason for this booking - was their tease: "of private equity buyout firm that has never had a down year".... they were hyping it as a hedge fund-esque alterntive investment vehicle... Mark Haines touched on the "qualified investor" questions... but, to his credit; quickly shifted gears and began questioning the guest about his comments on the economy & how he disagreed with an earlier guest - that all was well in the private business universe. So by happenstance... we got a great guest on CNBC (vbg). He went on to say that his mid-size private company universe is flat-lined, that Industrial Manufacuring remains in a 2 year abyss etc. This was one of the best guests on CNBC in ages ... and rather than being a paid member of the Pom-Pom Waving Market Cheerleader squad from Wall St... he opened a window to reality of what's out there in the Business World on Main St. USA... and it wasn't pretty. PS S S: regarding all this new hype on rising Bond Yields and how this money MUST rotate into stocks.... BS ! ...temporarially (keyword) will we see some portfolio re-balancing between bonds & stocks ? - yes; of course...but, this is NOT going to carry stocks back any levels to where they can climb out of the still very intact Bear channel. Actually; GOLD is in the Cat-Bird seat here. GOLD only needs micro-miniscule amounts of this rotation/portfolio re-balancing move, to find it's way into bullion, or gold mining stocks...to drive the sector substantially; as the beauty of the Sector is the incredibly small total market cap of the mining stocks. Anyone see Kudlow & Cramer last night ? Kudlow showed a great money supply chart: It was tanking from the beginning of the year, bottomed in July and is airborne presently... The Fed is going to have to keep those printing presses smokin' and green ink flyin'... and that's good for GOLD on a when, not if basis. The Fed slowed the money supply pump and the markets went to the edge of the abyss... the FED is NOT going to make this same mistake again...because they can't afford to... they are going to over-shoot and err' on the inflationary side... because they have no choice to do anything else - period. GOLD: Foi Est Tout ~ Anytime you get a chance to re-load on stocks that are within 10% of the lows they reached during that late July blow off to the July 26h closing low of HUI 95ish levels - do it. Don't be bashfull about taking some profits on rallies either... GOLD isn't going to go straight up and never look back... we'll get plenty of opportunities to take profits & re-load all the way up.

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