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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH
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To: H-Man who wrote (308766)10/16/2002 10:29:56 AM
From: Mr. Whist  Read Replies (2) of 769670
 
Only one national poll successfully predicted the closeness of the Bush vs. Gore 2000 election. Was it Zogby? I don't recall, but I'll take your word for it. In any event, what is important is how Zogby determined its sample population.

The reason that most polls failed to capture the closeness of the race is because of the way the samples were determined, i.e., only polling those that had voted in the '96 presidential election. (Hint: It's also important to identify and poll "possible" voters.)

My initial response was to your erroneous post #308589. To reiterate: What matters is margin of error percentage, not whether the sample is 1,000 or 1,200 or 50,000.

If you had understood scientific sampling methodology, you wouldn't have said what you said in #308589.
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