Profiler Predicts D.C. Sniper
dailytarheel.com
By Elyse Ashburn
State & National Editor
October 16, 2002
As a serial sniper continues to terrorize the Washington, D.C., metro area, a handful of elite geographical profilers are attempting to close in on his home base and predict his next move.
One such expert is Fayetteville resident Maurice Godwin, professor of criminal justice at Methodist College and director of investigative process management.
Godwin appeared on CNN on Oct. 7 and Oct. 11 offering his expertise to shed light on the nature and whereabouts of the serial sniper who has shot 11 victims since Oct. 2 -- claiming nine lives.
"This is not thrill killing," Godwin said in an interview Tuesday. "I don't think it's anger or rage. There's no doubt this was planned."
Godwin said the places the killer has chosen to strike not only make weeks of planning necessary for a hit but require a high level of familiarity with the area likely to be had only by a resident of northern Virginia. "The general theory behind (geographic profiling) is that the way in which criminals travel when they commit crimes reflects where they travel when they aren't committing crimes."
He added that such profiling methods are more reliable than those related to psychology. "The most tell-tale thing is geography. With geography, you are dealing with facts."
Godwin said only an offender who knew the area's intricacies could make an escape like that executed after Monday night's shooting in a high traffic area of Falls Church, Va., the suspect's latest attack. "You know he knows the area."
The suspect's home base likely is nearer the border of Virginia and Washington than that of Maryland and the district, Godwin said.
He attributed the initial killings in Montgomery County, Md., to a day trip outside the killer's home zone. "I would suggest he was actually up there on some other business."
Godwin said that judging from geographical data and the killer's alleged flight pattern, the shooter is likely to strike east of the last attack.
After the shooting Monday in the Home Depot parking garage in Falls Creek, the sniper allegedly fled the scene by way of U.S. 50 East.
"They need to watch to the east," he said, adding that the killer, who is growing increasingly bold, likely will strike a more sensitive target next time. "They need to be watching out for schools."
Though he is confident in his predictions, Godwin said geographical profiling is most effectively used to zero in on a serial killer's home.
"Geographical profiling primarily tries to predict where the offender lives," he said. "People don't often use it to predict the next hit."
But Godwin said that as the killer becomes more confident, as the difficulty of his most recent target suggests he has, the attack points will edge closer to his home base. "As (serial killers) commit more crimes, they get more confident," he said. "As they get more confident, the points draw in."
The sniper's actions have become more brazen, indicating that he doesn't expect to be caught, Godwin said. "He thinks he can get by with it. He thinks he can abort at any time."
The State & National Editor can be reached at stntdesk@unc.edu.
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