Slider, (Winter Forecast Update)
I am now completing my winter forecast, to add to my winter forecast preview a call for higher than normal snowfall amounts for my forecast area of Pennsylvania, also to include the mid Atlantic and the Northeast. (All ski enthusiasts, you are welcome, ggg!)
The total success of my call for at least two tropical systems (and or their residuals) to end the drought in the Eastern US indicates the change in weather pattern I have forecasted was spot on and completes the necessary things I needed to indicate winter precipitation.
I do not believe I will go all the way out on a limb and call for a repeat of the 95-96 winter here in the East, but I will indicate that as a possibility, with several large snowstorms a high probability. Maybe not a big deal in the NE, but my area of PA has a history of missing a lot of storms other folks get, ggg.
An excellent article by Joe D'Aleo (see end of post)which outlines some of the climatological aspects that went in to my winter forecast work this year along with my natural observations, which give me the direction and drive on what to look for. Please note that while I have the highest regards for the two Joe's (Joe D'Aleo and Joe Bastardi) and admit I am an avid follower of their work and am far inferior to them on as a meterorolgist (I'm just an amateur), my own forecast PREVIEW predated theirs (well, Bastardi's isn't out yet) by several weeks, being made here on September 26.
Natural observations being my edge in indicating the general direction of the forecast...
Unfortunately for myself and the thread, and the large amount of work I put into the winter forecast, there were not a lot of opportunities to profit the last few weeks in the energy sector from my early winter forecast, but perhaps that will change at some future point.
The EPO and AO were the main tipoffs for me this year (along with abundant natural observations) in addition to good prospects for a mostly negative NAO this winter, the EPO being the most work intensive for me as I had not done a lot of work with that previously, but began to note it in my data in early Sept. It was most gratifying to me to see the EPO (for me definitely like detective work) confirmed by the "Two Joe's".
I hope the thread enjoys this article by Joe D'Aleo:
intellicast.com
Anyone with investing/trading ideas in the energy sector feel free to reciprocate!
Best Regards All, I'm out of here the rest of the week, finishing up the fall vacation,
Roebear |
