Is Linux Really Going To Rule the Desktop?
Wed Oct 16, 1:19 PM ET
Jay Lyman, www.NewsFactor.com
The Linux (news - web sites) operating system remains strong in the server market, continuing to prove itself in a growing array of computing environments, including financial services, education and government. When it comes to the desktop, though, Linux can claim less than 1 percent market share, according to 2001 figures. Research firm IDC found the operating system is installed on just .5 percent of desktop PCs, while Mac OS has 2.4 percent desktop market share and Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT - news) Windows has 95 percent.
Nevertheless, if companies resist Microsoft's new licensing terms, they may look to Linux for flexibility and savings. In addition, with companies like Red Hat (Nasdaq: RHAT - news) reinforcing desktop Linux efforts and Sun Microsystems (Nasdaq: SUNW - news) supporting the OS, Linux could begin capturing larger portions of the desktop market and could achieve as much as a 10 percent share in the next couple of years, according to analysts.
Biggest Alternative
Much of the noise about Linux on the desktop has recently been overshadowed by support for Mac OS X (news - web sites) as the best alternative to the Windows operating system. In contrast to Linux, the much-praised OS runs nearly all of the desired desktop applications, such as Microsoft Office and Adobe Photoshop, Giga Information Group industry analyst Stacey Quandt told NewsFactor.
Despite the Mac OS X whirlwind, efforts to move Linux to the desktop are ongoing and include the Lindows and Mandrake versions, which offer office functionality. However, Quandt said, Lindows is limited to the consumer market rather than the enterprise and "still needs to be proven."
Mandrake will find its place on the desktop in the long term, according to Quandt, and Red Hat's version 8, which resolves a longstanding conflict between varying user interfaces, will position the vendor to target the desktop as well.
However, she noted that the market for Linux remains limited to certain industry sectors -- financial services, education, government and point-of-sale machines. It will be much harder for the operating system to gain ground in fields that depend heavily on Microsoft Office.
Positioned Properly
Even so, analysts said they still expect Linux to extend its desktop reach in the next two years and beyond.
Aberdeen Group research director Bill Claybrook told NewsFactor that although Linux has not seen desktop market share growth in the last two years, Sun's Star Office 6.0, Ximian Evolution personal information management software, and HP's and Red Hat's focus on workstations will fuel future growth. "There are things that have positioned it to take off a little bit," he said.
Claybrook added that development of workstation applications for mail and messaging, among other initiatives, also is poised to lead Linux deeper into the desktop market.
Will They Support It?
While open source advocates trumpet the availability of free community support for Linux, analysts agreed that if the open source OS is ever to rule the desktop, major players must continue backing it.
Claybrook, who called reliability the most attractive advantage of Linux, said companies are eager to abandon Windows and work with various vendors of best-of-breed software. However, he said, Linux' desktop market potential is highly dependent on whether companies such as HP and Red Hat get behind the desktop push.
Quandt noted that Linux will take off on the desktop as it did on servers only with customer validation. "There's enough interest in looking to an alternative to Microsoft and reducing IT spending," she said. "In certain environments, it has significant potential. It will take these environments to articulate what they're doing for users to follow the same migration path." |
