Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host

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To: Boca_PETE who wrote (16888)	10/17/2002 11:48:41 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) of 42834

True. That is one reason I enjoy tracking them as much as I can... just to see if their claims are as good as the results. There seem to be many levels of difficulty for all that have a portfolio or advice. How to accurately measure what they say vs what people following them actually do. We've seen how Brinker can use off the books advice to his advantage. Just about anyone that pays for his P1 advice is sitting heavy into tech and large cap growth (via QQQ) and is performing about as well as the S&P500 buy and holders after under performing it all the way up since 1986. I've been trying to follow and understand Don Wolanchuck and I think I see why Timer Digest stopped following him.. He kept winning year after year is what Don tells me, but I find it hard to follow his advice unless you are willing to pay to listen to the hotline and who has the money or time to call that every hour? I know if I applied Sy's advice to my portfolio, I'd have 50% more from the TOP compared to seeing it fall to match the S&P500. There is always "hindsight" and I fear following ANY market timer as it seems as soon as I do they would get smashed as they revert to the mean. In this article I have, " The True Role Of The Financial Advisor", it starts out: During the summer of 1994 at a conference in Phoenix, Arizona, a large group of fee-only financial advisors was listening to a speaker discuss efficient markets, three-factor analysis, and how active management is a loser ' s game. Someone in the aud ience was not drinking from the same Kool-Aid and asked how, if markets were efficient and active management doesn ' t work, do you explain the likes of Peter Lynch. The speaker responded: 'Let ' s assume we were the host of coin-flipping contest and we invite d 500 of the best coin flippers in the country. We set up the tournament as a single-elimination draw where the winner of each round is the participant who is able to flip heads the most times. At the end of the tournament we would award the crown to the coin-flipping champion. Everyone in the country would learn about this amazing coin flipper. We would write books about how he could flip coins better than anyone in the country. He would be on Good Morning America as the champion coin flipper. Do you get my point?' In a matter of a few simple sentences, the speaker reduced the capabilities of the most successful active manager to nothing more than being a random person who by chance was crowned the champion active manager. It was an illuminating analogy. >From that point in 1994, my view of what value a fee-only advisor brings to a client began to evolve. If anyone is interested in the full article, send me an email and I will pass it on. Sy just might be on a roll with his coin flips! cheers Kirk

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