Gary >that was a good article.
I thought so too. Wanniski has always believed that POG should be a lot higher and that the Fed was doing the US economy a disservice by keeping it low.
> I'm a believer in the long wave and Kondratieff cycle and the downward cycle will just have to run it's course. I don't see any sign of hitting bottom yet.
I am also fascinated by long wave cycles. However, I think the underlying factors which create the dynamics of the cycles have been so distorted by all kinds of manipulation that I don't think true cycles can exist these days. Being a radio buff, I was also very interested in sun spot cycles, not only because of their influence on radio propagation, but because of their effects on the economy. Yes, they once did have an effect on economic cycles, but that was when economies were primarily agricultural. However, for the last 150 years or so, because of industrialization etc, one cannot observe a simple, direct relationship between sunspots and the economy as was apparent prior to that.
>The music stopped when Corp. America stopped borrowing. They knew the cycle was heading down. The banks are hurting since they lost that income.
I agree. The US economy is driven by debt and the borrowing stopped when it simply became too expensive to buy earnings with credit.
>One of the signs of that is how many times in month your entice to take on another credit card. One of the few ways they can make a buck.
I can't say. I carry only one credit card.
> What I'm watching for is the day when Corp. America starts borrowing money and hiring. Till then I don't think there are many equities to look at.
I agree with that, too. Unfortunately many people confuse a technically "oversold" stockmarket position with good investment value.
>Do you suppose that as much as the US like to get into situations on their own, do you not think that in some cases (the rest of the world knows the US foreign policy, mindset, whatever you want to call it) situations are created to draw them in where it would most times be better if they didn't?
I can't answer that and I also don't understand how the US can possibly benefit from military action all over the globe, especially in the MidEast. For this reason, it's my opinion that the pro-Israel block has effectively cornered the US administration and has created the myth that what is good for Israel is also good for the US. In fact, I believe that 911 and other terrorist action all around the place has more to do with Israel than the US.
>Until this thing corrects, it's going to be good for gold.
To me, gold is an enigma. On the basis of political and economic uncertainties,I believe the gold price should have been higher. Also, compared to the index of commodity prices, ie the CRB. There is an enormous resistance at $325-330. My main reason for holding my parcel of gold stocks is as a hedge against the SA currency, the rand, although I have to say that the rand is quite firm lately.
> Looks like a buy opp right around here
If you see the gold price in a trading range, between say $325 and $310, then yes. On the other hand, if you consider that the uptrend from $260 has possibly been violated, then no. I'm a very bad trader, presumably because I let my emotions get the better of my judgement, so I don't take short-term positions. Therefore, I can't really answer your question. |
