Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk

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To: da_cheif™ who wrote (4916)	10/17/2002 10:01:17 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 206847

Hi Chief, What did you do ? Run everybody off?? <VBG> Chief, lets say this rally has legs and gets us to a congestion period where it bumps up against multiple trend lines (depending on what index you follow). It will be a natural place for newbie bears to get short for the next wave down (this has been as good a play as buy the dips was in 99) - so it is safe to say there will be a battle line out there somewhere.Maybe it only lasts 4-6 days - or maybe we see new lows-most likely depends on the stock. In 98 a retest occurred after 4-5 days down after a confirmation rally occurred. Here's the question: Would you expect a 50% retrace from the lows of early October to an intermediate top (which would also be the congestion period) or would there be a better fib # to use (.68 for example). In 98 the retrace displayed positive divergences that made the aggressive buy an obvious bet the farm kind of play. I'm thinking a similar move will occur and wondering what % retraces would be a scale into kind of play into tomorrow's rise(as in the future). I hope that makes sense. Thanks in advance for your thoughts. Bob

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