SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Mark L. who wrote (40486)10/18/2002 1:17:39 AM
From: Joseph Silent   of 52237
 
Mark,

Thanks for that astute and very well-written assessment of this peculiar rally. From reading the boards I observe that its vicious nature has caught many of the SI market veterans by surprise. That is surprising in itself because everything I have read (and it's not a great deal really :) ) about previous bear markets has emphasized that bear market rallies can be sharp and vicious. So one would think we should expect to be surprised (if, indeed, such a position is possible) by sudden, vicious rallies.

In any event, I agree with what you say. In general, I also believe that the market is a random process (not in the sense of classical Brownian motion, but perhaps nearly so) in which supporting conditions periodically change -- which is why predictions based on statistical data fail as often as they may work, i.e., the underlying process from which one is sampling is continuously undergoing change. Distributions are not stationary. Your data on the spike in the number of hedge funds and the spike in the (newbie) shorts is one example of what spoils stationarity.

If what you say is right (and I feel it is) then we are bound to see sharper moves up and down, in smaller time frames, until the economic landscape changes and uncertainty cannot be exploited with as much potential for profitability.

/j
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2026 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News