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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: Win-Lose-Draw who wrote (198509)10/18/2002 11:07:33 AM
From: stan_hughes  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
i am not good at predicting this sort of thing

Neither am I, and I always try to remind myself that analyses and predictions made under a static set of known inputs need to be regularly revisited to take new events into account. All I can say at this point is that if nothing changes, I don't see how we avoid a collapse, or at least what most people would call a collapse.

When will it happen? My best guess is that it begins with a new liquidity crunch that alters the short term rate picture, promulgating a large domino-style failure somewhere, which in turn starts a chain reaction of default. If I knew which of the many candidates for disaster was going to fail first, I might be able to answer the question, but I don't.

Brazil? Some British insurer? A German bank? JPM? Some other big derivatives player? A big MF run? Another terrorist attack? Another corporate accounting fraud? Simply the exhaustion of JSP's lines of credit?

It's eeny-meeny-miney-mo if you ask me, you supply the dates
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