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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 291.39

+2.8%

4:00 PM EST

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To: Terry D who wrote (6277)	10/18/2002 11:31:30 AM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) of 95478

I guess I need to be more specific. I believe we are approaching a double dip scenario where it concerns technology companies in general. I agree that the consumer has continued to spend strongly throughout this entire bear market but there has been little evidence of a business led recovery. As for a potential for an exogenous shock? I think a war with Iraq, even if short, will provide that second economic dip if it has not already begun. Of course if the war goes really well it may actually provide us with both final capitulation at the beginning and a new bull market at the end if oil prices begin to fall as a result. From Briefing.com: Sector Watch: Semiconductor Sector index (SOX at 261 -2.1%) negative throughout but rallied as much as 4.4% off the early low before slipping back again in recent action. Biggest losses seen in BRCM -16.1%, ALTR -4.6%, LSCC -6%, XLNX -3% and NVLS -2.1%. Supports for the SOX during current pullback are at 260/259 with an intraday key at 256. Top performers in the group today are: AMD +4.1% and TER +0.9%. Bonds down again - We have been noting in recent days that despite some ups and downs in the stock market, bonds keep heading lower. One possible interpretation is that the decline in bonds signals a belief that this stock rebound is for real (it's notable that bond yields continued to fall during the August stock rebound). We are seeing more of the same today, as an early rally in the Treasury market has been unwound, with the 10-year now off slightly to yield 4.21%, far above the week-ago yield of 3.63%. finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+ALTR+AMAT+AMD+BRCM+INTC+KLAC+LLTC+LSCC+LSI+MOT+MU+MXIM+NSM+NVLS+TER+TXN+XLNX&d=t JMHO,RtS

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