Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy?

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To: ynot who wrote (6443)	10/18/2002 12:22:32 PM
From: mtnlady	Read Replies (2) of 6974

All things are possible. I do believe SEBL is going to be slammed quite hard in this next major wave down for several reasons. I'll be the first one to say that this is hardly a financial analysis (I'll leave that to Mike!) and just my own wild ass guess.. but here goes... a) Market Issues: If the NAS breaks below 1000, which I believe, it will. SEBL is going to be staring the nosedive from lower levels (ouch) - figure 3's alone from the market drop. b) Losing Market Share: SEBL is not in as strong a position as a MSFT or others are. Who is going to implement immensely expensive, huge CRM projects in an environment like this? PSFT's small project approach is going to fair better in this environment (how profitable it will be is another matter). And with SAP, ORCL etc... chipping away at the large customers. Well things are going to be pretty rough until the market turns around. Figure SEBL hits 2's because it's losing some market share. p.s. Has anyone analyzed market share lately and seen who has what now and what % change has occurred? (e.g. SEBL had 'x' market share in 00, 'y' in 01 and 'z' in 02 compared to PSFT who had x..y..z. Love to see such info if anyone has it. c) Mojo - SEBL just isn't the 'darling' of Walls Street anymore. Money, what money there will be at the bottom, will flow toward MSFT and others. SEBL will be an abandoned stock. Figure SEBL may hit the 1's on this. My strategy is pretty simple (of course following it is always my problem! Lol!). When the NAS hits 800's-900's I'm going to start building back up my basket of G&K stocks. I have every intention of putting SEBL into that basket. And if I can get SEBL at $1-2 that just means I can pick up more shares.

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