<This fact, that spectrum is a scarce resource, is of course the main reason why QCOM was destined to win.I suspect the TDMA/GSM/GPRS/EDGE/WCDMA crowd already needs more spectrum. >
True, it is a limited resource, but there seems plenty to go around. Vodafone NZ recently paid US$1million total for 9MHz between 890MHz and 899MHz and 4MHz at around 950MHz [I forget exactly where it was].
There is more and more being squeezed out of spectrum so the value of it is reducing.
A couple of years ago, when $100 billion was bid for spectrum in Europe, I thought QUALCOMM had grossly undercharged for their technology [in terms of royalty charges]. If they had charged 30% royalty, the bids would have been much lower.
But now, there seems to be heaps of spectrum and reauction of that 2GHz stuff would get a fraction of the price. Maybe 5% royalty is about right after all.
Nextwave's spectrum must be worth much less too.
As electronics come down in cost, picocells can be built out, which means frequency re-use goes zooming up. With 1xEV-DV and other improvements in spectrum use coming along, spectrum seems likely to get cheaper, not more expensive.
But demand will continue to grow. It's a guess as to spectrum values in 2010.
Mqurice |
