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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 291.39

+2.8%

Nov 26 4:00 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (6286)	10/18/2002 6:26:48 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 95480

HI G, I know you must love these questions that are veiled and make you work - but: Have you ever picked the bottom of a cycle as a starting point and plotted the book to bill as a complete cycle? Of course some cycles are longer or shorter. You are right about sept being historically low - with the exception of the 01 bloodletting. The first chart show that our diptheria has turned out to be a failed recovery cycle.This appears to be an extension of the decline. I guess it is a left over from the previous huge cycle. All in all I believe it builds for a stronger next cycle. I wonder what the actual Lifetime is for most semi equipment - that is does rplacement need come in if technology obsolescenece doesn't occur first? I don't believe its ever been a huge factor - wonder if a prolonged trough will bring this new concept around?? Bob

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