Good to see ya, AA. I was chatting with a trader pal of mine after the market closed today and we were discussing next week (and the rest of the year, too). For next week, we realized that most everyone seems to be looking for a pullback, probably mild, then renewed up. Almost no one is looking for either A) a continued move up or B) a fast trip to misery. I can't (or don't want to) imagine a spark for either of those, but it's easier to come up with reasons for the latter.
My amateur look at the charts shows so many stochastics pegged, stocks with hanging men or other potential topping patterns, gaps below, trendlines and moving averages in play (that haven't been in play for some time). Personally, my port now has a short bias for the first time since the Oct 7 low I wanted (which proved not to be THE low, but was close). I am usually early, but frankly, I'm pleased that I waited for 25% in the BKX and 15%+ in the big indices before switching biases. This marks a change in me -- and will probably lead to me getting my a** kicked! So if scenario A above happens, you can all blame me.
The other thing I've learned from y'all, is that it's the nature of this next pullback that will tell us if this is a retracement or more. I'm actually not looking to break the bank with my positions, but I did like the risk reward for some shorts here. I'll wait for the pullback and then re-think, as there are certainly a few indications that the last bottom could hold for awhile (follow through days, back to back low trin readings, etc. Yeah, I know. . . things that haven't worked in THE BEAR.)
Hope the job is good. See y'all next week, most likely.
the freep |
