Brother Searle!
Aureum vobiscum. ;)
Tom B was at another site today and I realized I hadn't heard your lovely pessimstic voice in ages.
I see you are still a devotee of "epater les bourgeoises" when they've got their facts wrong.
I was prompted to respond because of your comments on the Long Wave which remains a major interest of mine after all these years. Despite computer chips, birth control, and credit cards I am convinced the wave is still operative for general price levels, wages, and interest rates which drive everything else including gold and stock equities and, of course, bonds.
Being an impatient sort, I fully expected an early bottom in 1998, but really 1949 + 54 IS 2003, and we seem headed for that +/- a year or so. We are far closer to a bottom than the top, which was, after all is said and done, in the mid to late 1970's and not 1990 or 2000. Only stock worshippers believe the latter, as they were spared a recession until then, whilst the commodity folks and industry were hard hit in the 1980's and 90's.
So in my view we are due on course in the relatively deflationary terminal down phase. If it weren't for fiat money and fiat credit we'd be a lot worse off as in the 19th century and the 1930's.
I've spent most of my time since the 1996 gold top in S&P futures, but still have a love for the yellow metal whose time is coming. After all it bottomed in 1999 and is higher in all currencies since then: a lot higher in some poor cousins.
The last I wrote anything on gold was a year or two ago for Gold Eagle, but my analysis hasn't changed a bit.
gold-eagle.com
So there! There is some value in old Elliott's waves if properly done ;)
I hope you and your family are well, and I'm very happy that your nation's prospects seem brighter than when we last chatted. Or is that just for public relations and politics?
Cheers from Bro. Thomas,
Tom Drake |
