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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 296.92

+0.1%

Dec 1 4:00 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (6299)	10/18/2002 11:16:23 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 95501

Hi G, I'm leaning towards that 50 % retrace also. I've a note pad where I calculate cohu's 50 and 68 percent retrace from 9.78 to whatever daily high occurs. We are very close to a major reversal.All reversals in the past have a final shakeout after a new low has been established. I'm thinking it will happen somewhere between next week and/or a consolidation that goes basically sideways and has a final shakeout in the December "prewarnings time period (of course tax selling will hit losers harder at the end of December unless overwhelmed by panicing bond holders who wake up to the fact that 3% for the next 7-8 years is below par/inflation. I really do believe that loser bond portfolios is the next cold awakening - that is to say that the safety of bonds is equivalent to losing if you hold or sell. Thanks for the data - I'll get on it. Have a great weekend Bob

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