Oops. That's the ladies room.
After writing the most massive post ever, I've decided
not to post it (to the relief of some).
I see it as a waste right now.
So I will keep this short. Despite the current conditions
I am the most optimistic at this time in comparison to
any previous date. For 3-4 years I gambled that Rebecca
(or anyone) could see the Pennsaid NDA through which was
a large risk.
I have not forgotten that all hinges on FDA approval or
that it would be ideal to have JNJ selling it.
Secondly, I will post the market size and finally I will
post a grid of Earnings Per Share so that people asking
themselves how to view the upcoming OXO shares will have
my input.
Market for NSAID's in the US:
Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Size % 8,000,000,000 9,200,000,000 10,580,000,000 12,167,000,000 13,992,050,000
0.03 240,000,000 276,000,000 317,400,000 365,010,000 419,761,500
0.04 320,000,000 368,000,000 423,200,000 486,680,000 559,682,000
0.05 400,000,000 460,000,000 529,000,000 608,350,000 699,602,500
0.07 560,000,000 644,000,000 740,600,000 851,690,000 979,443,500
The 2002 and 03 columns aren't relevant since maturity will not be achieved. These are not lofty goals for a branding
expert advertising into the market most driven by
advertising with a product that while different has some
key features.
Finally, based on the 4% line with the left number being
the shares outstanding in millions here are the effects
on EPS over the same years as above
EPS 50 1.43 1.65 1.89 2.18 2.50
55 1.30 1.50 1.72 1.98 2.28
60 1.19 1.37 1.58 1.81 2.09
65 1.10 1.27 1.46 1.68 1.93
70 1.02 1.18 1.35 1.56 1.79
Using the 2004 line with the actual values being irrelevant
the difference between having 50 and 60 million shares
outstanding would be the difference between having $1.58
and $1.89. Material but not a decision maker. Use your
own values and the materiality doesn't change. Use an
example showing borderline earnings and its still irrelevant
since either situation is equally poor.
With cash, they've never had any. And they've never had
a better story to tell to go get some.
Good luck.
Wolf |
