Is the DC Sniper a Terrorist...?
DC Sniper Analysis
By Mark Day - Sierra Times Staff
Published 10. 18. 02 at 23:06 Sierra Time
The shootings that have taken place have a number of common factors, as follows:
1. All have taken place within an area 30 miles across 2. All have taken place in public areas/around public facilities 3. All have involved a single shot fired 4. Most have involved adults middle aged or older 5. Most have had reports of two males leaving the area in a white or light colored vehicle 6. Many have taken place near a Michael's craft store 7. Law enforcement authorities seemingly are having little impact on the shooters activities
Targets seemingly are chosen at random, and are apparently targets of opportunity, rather than specifically chosen as to sex, identifiable profession (for example, police or other uniformed workers) etc. Even with police searches taking place shortly after most shootings, the shooter or shooters have not been apprehended, implying a planned escape route based on location. All the areas where shootings took place have been near major roadways, also suggesting preplanning of escape routes.
The fact that these shootings are being carried out in the area that they are, in my opinion, indicates a possible terrorist link. The area is the very near (in one case actually in) the Nation's capitol, where there is a high concentration of police agencies, military command functions, etc. What better place to demonstrate the ability to strike at the heart of ones enemies than in their own seat of government?
The fact that one or two people (based on reporting) have been able to generate such fear in the local population, even without the common "taking credit" that has so often been associated with terrorist attacks may well indicate a much more military view of making such attacks. If a terrorist organization had long range plans to strike at the U.S. it would be well served to shed tactics that have been common to terrorists in the past. By using tactics that have not been used before such an organization could, for little cost, escalate their effectiveness.
The fact that the attacks of September 11, 2001 were so different from commonly used terrorist tactics is an indication of at least a realignment of the view of terror tactics by those who employ such methods.
The choice of caliber may have been made to make ballistic matches difficult, due to the light construction of .223 size bullets. This size bullet is frangible (breaks up easily) especially at high velocities. The fragile nature of these bullets can make ballistic matches more difficult as they are very often damaged by striking a substantial target- persons, animals, vehicles, walls, etc. If chosen for this feature, it would allow the use of more than one firearm or type of firearm, and still leave the identification of the class of ammunition possible due to the level of damage to the bullet (indicator of velocity), the size bullet (.224" diameter bullets range from 40 grains to 80 grains in weight with 55 grain bullets being most common). There are several cartridges which fit into the range of the .223 Remington, any of which might be being used- the police have stated that the rounds used are .223, but the police also hold information from the press and public in the course of investigations routinely for some very good reasons (and at times not so good ones as well).
The weapon or weapons being used may have been chosen for this feature of the ammunition, and as well because of the common availability (if in fact the weapon/weapons being used are .223 Remington [also known as 5.56x45 NATO] this ammunition is used in the U.S. military M16 as well as NATO member nations arms, many common hunting and target firearms, including three or more commercially available handguns). This also applies to some other cartridges in this class with the exception of their use as military standard rounds. The .223 caliber is used in short range sniper/counter sniper applications by the U.S. armed services, including the JSOC (Joint Special Operations Command- special forces), some U.S. police agencies/departments. The common availability of the ammunition and arms chambered for it may have influenced the choice to use it.
The commercial availability of other rounds in this class makes them viable possibilities, and does not make the .223 round the only possibility. This being said if the police statements that the .223 Remington is the round in use by the shooter or shooters is the complete and total truth (and it is possible- there are methods by which cartridges can be- mostly- reliably identified even without the case that the bullet was fired from) there is the possibility that other rounds in this class might be used in future shootings to confuse the issue.
The attacks are quite possibly the work of foreign terrorists such as Al Qaeda. This possibility cannot be discounted due to the disruption of social structure, which would be of benefit to terrorist organizations, as well as giving them the opportunity to observe the reactions and techniques of the police in response to the shootings.
The shooter may be a "thrill killer", however I feel that the probability of that is less than of an organized campaign due to the lack of identifiers associated with deranged individuals that commit these types of crimes.
Some features of the shootings that I feel are solid indicators that the shootings are not being carried out by a "professional" sniper are as follows:
1. The first shooting to be associated with this series of attacks was at a Michael's craft store- the shot fired was through a window and hit no one. A well trained marksman is aware of the effects that firing through glass have on the flight path of a bullet (especially a high velocity light weight bullet). A well trained operator would not have made such a poor shot- the snipers motto is "one shot, one kill".
2. A trained marksman (sniper) regards his job as the saving of lives. To commit such random shootings is highly offensive to the professionalism of such marksmen, because it is diametrically opposed to the purpose of a professional. A "real" sniper fires his weapon with the purpose of saving the lives of those they are charged to protect- this is true regardless of whether the marksman in question is a military sniper, or a law enforcement "designated marksman". (There is at least one notable exception to this- the shooting of Vicki Weaver by FBI HRU sniper Lon Horiuchi- I personally believe that the shooting of Mrs. Weaver was an aberation, and NOT typical of the behavior of a professional marksman).
3. The overwhelming choice for a basic sniper rifle is a bolt action rifle chambered for the .308 Winchester (7.62x51 NATO). The reasons for this are many, including the inherent accuracy of the cartridge, the inherent accuracy of a bolt action rifle, the ease of configuration of such a rifle for high accuracy, the advantages of range of the cartridge (a .223 caliber cartridge is limited in range to 500 yards or less, whereas a .308 is useful out to 1200 yards or more).
4. The semiautomatic rifles commonly chambered for .223 Remington are in general much smaller and therefore more concealable than a "real" sniper rifle, and the .223 is also much easier to use in a pistol chambered for it- offering even more concealability, with relatively less effort being required to master such a firearm than if it (a pistol) were chambered for .308 Winchester.
The fact that the shooter or shooters are in my opinion very unlikely to be well trained professional snipers does not mean that they are incapable of carrying out their agenda. What it does mean is that professionals are predictable- amateurs are the dangerous ones. It also does not mean any comfort can be taken in the fact that the person or persons commiting these acts is not a well trained expert. Even beginners and amateurs can be very good at something and may learn quickly from their errors.
I feel that it may be possible that these shootings could be the work of a "lone nut"- if so the shootings will continue in a similar "patternless" pattern. However I feel perhaps from just a weight of evidence (I have read over 250 pages of material regarding these shootings, and on the subject matter of sniping in the few days I have spent preparing this) that it will turn out that these are the actions of enemies of our nation, and people, that are commiting these crimes. If this is the case, the shootings are unlikely to remain centered in the Washington D.C. area, and more attacks will be forthcoming. Further, the nature of the attacks are likely to change and may not be recognized at first for what they are and are almost certain to be portrayed as "other than terrorist attacks" in the mainstream media.
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