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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 302.84

+2.0%

Dec 2 4:00 PM EST

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To: Kirk © who wrote (6335)	10/20/2002 11:35:45 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	of 95515

Morgan and Bagley think you should have a 0.13u, copper. low K-dielectric fab line.<g> Your ideas of "shortage" come from the past when companies had to go it alone and the cycle went to extremes. The current environment provides for measured technology development and capacity additions closer to end user demand. This coupled with the slow recovery of end user demand makes it very unlikely that foundries will be left very much behind when things improve. INTC will not be able to license ALTR and XLNX technology. INTC may join IBM and be a foundry for PLDs. I have been evaluating "real men have fabs" for a while. I have decided that I would much rather invest in fabless and equipment vendors. If you want to make comparisons, use 10-Qs and 10-Ks and compile your own data based on reading the accompanying text. The Quicken data was not very useful. One time events (PLD inventory writeoffs) completely skewed the data.

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