Slider, we've discussed the housing refi and related issues off and on. Got a couple of pieces of info that fit into the puzzle.
- Know personally of a some recent refinance cases, of upper middle level income families. In all cases they took out some equity, paid off credit card debt, and saved the rest. They didn't spend it on new whatever.
- AK PF dividend refunds are quite important to the average AK folk. A huge amount of money paid out all at once, annually. Many use it for special purchases, such as computers, autos, once a year feel good junk, and the like. Local banks have very good statistics on how quickly it is spent. Well, guess what? It ain't moving very fast this year. Large chunks are remaining in the bank accounts, i.e. being saved.
Appears like we are slowly entering phase III or whatever you want to call it regarding the consumer. They are slowly pulling in their horns and instead of spending they are starting to save and pay off debt. IMO this will lead to a very deep recession within a year or so, which will probably be one of several over the next 5 years, as this bear marches onward.
FWIW. |
