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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity

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To: augieboo who wrote (17285)10/21/2002 12:04:35 PM
From: Warpfactor  Read Replies (3) of 23153
 
The TRINQ study shows results that are seemingly opposite of the TRIN mantra's.

With TRIN, one typically would infer a buy signal with a high TRIN reading. Low TRIN is typically associated with overbought conditions.

Your study seems to show that gains are usually forthcoming after low TRINQs, and losses follow extreme high.

Any reason why this might be??

I would theorize the following. TRIN keys off of NYSE and is used as a contrarian indicator. A high TRIN reading is indicative that there has been strong selling pressure. The NYSE is broad spectrum - covering a wide array of industry groups. In order to get the high TRINs over such a broad collection of sectors, this implies that some sectors are getting panic dumped. (Remember the definition of TRIN is a disparity between ratio of volume bought/sold to num issues bought/sold)

The TRINQ is mostly tech. Different sectors but they usually move as a herd. A high TRINQ means that certain sectors (networkers, SOX, BTech) are getting whacked on a given day.
Assume that SOX is getting whacked on a given day and we get a TRINQ of 6. Unlike a high TRIN - which will signal a climax, a high TRINQ seems to imply that other tech sector will follow SOX into the crapper over the next few days. A signal to "open the floodgates" if you will.

Would be nice to get ahold of some bull market data though, and see how that plays.
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