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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity
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To: augieboo who wrote (17287)10/21/2002 12:15:21 PM
From: Michael  Read Replies (1) of 23153
 
Nice analysis Augie.

Here's a is another slant on the data. My inetrest was the frequency of a result i.e how many times was it + or -,rather than the magnitude of the move.

If you take the whole sample theres a slight negative bias ( which i suppose is consistent with it being in a bear market for most of the time). The average of the return though was consistently on track.

Percentage Negative of  498.00	0.53	0.56	0.56	0.57	0.59	0.59	0.61	0.61	0.61	0.62
Average Change %		0.00	0.00   -0.01   -0.01   -0.01   -0.01   -0.01   -0.01   -0.02   -0.02


I only looked at the counts for the 6 - 7.99 TRINQ readings (given our 7.3 last week) they look very reasonable.

Percentage Negative of 11.00	0.82	0.91	0.82	0.82	0.73	0.82	0.73	0.73	0.73	0.73


However as the past week is showing us high probabilities are still just probabilities.

Michael
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