Intel Corporation (INTC) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)

INTC 45.51

+10.7%

Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (171678)	10/21/2002 2:04:28 PM
From: chomolungma	Read Replies (1) of 186894

I am relying on earnings alone to get a return on investment and not the ability to sell a piece of paper at a higher price. Yes, but why did you choose cycle low earnings? Why not choose 2000 (cycle top) earnings of $10 billion instead? Or why not choose cash flow if you're "buying" the whole business and just want to get a return on your money? Sure 25% is way too high of a normalized growth rate for Intel. It's undoubtedly no more than half of that once the economic conditions return earnings to a normal level. But your high growth rate, in an attempt to look conservative, becomes meaningless because you choose an absurdly low earnings level on which to base it . Now you may think that Intel's earnings this year are typical, but don't think that anyone else shares your vision of the future. I'll pick $8 billion as a normal earnings level and a "conservative" multiple of 25 since Intel will grow faster than the economy for the next 10 years. That gives a conservative value on the stock twice the current level. See how easy it is when you get to pick your own inputs?

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