re[".... In chess, it’s called “checkmate.”]
...Bingo !
This move was a classic Inside Wall St -> "Student Body Left" - ESF/PPT heads up prop job - with the "heads up" given to the Pension Fund & Institutional Mgrs to ride the Bond "tail" that wagged the Equity "dog" of this market via the rotational/portfolio re-balancing out of bonds and into stocks - as the ESF/PPT was going to provide plenty of wind behind those bonds to stocks - rotational sails.
I thought DOW 8350 would be the fizzle point & it held thru friday and commented that the Bulls shouldn't even dream of dusting of the Pom-Pom's untill 8750 was reached...and it hasn't been as yet.
But, Technically speaking; the real cross-point is where the last so called market bottom and "New Bull Market" - rally off of July 23rds closing low of DOW 7702, rolled over and died on Aug. 22nd at DOW 9053.
60 days ago we were at DOW 9053... and now somehow a move back over 8,000 is now a Rally" - a "new" Bull Market ?
C'Mon ?!?
9053 needs to be taken out for this DCB to earn the right to be called a "Rally", or more importantly; for anyone to even begin to mouth the words - that the market has turned.
I don't have any real dog in this hunt - "yet"... other than re-adding some goldstocks from HUI 95-105. But, when/if the DOW rises above 9000 - I'll eagerly re-deploy a 10-15% short position... as just as Lance Lewis commented:
Greenspan indeed traded one bubble for another and the Mortgage Refi game has ended. Fear of Job loss is ramping along with having 401K & Investment accounts whacked for the 3rd consecutive year...and for those workers who thought their retirment wasn't affected because they were part of a defined benefit plan...this Bear became an equal opportunity offender and delivered what will become a headline/cover story in 2003 - The Pension Crisis.
The song remains the same ~
War in Iraq, Oil Prices/Crisis, Domestic & Global Terrorism, Ballooning Account Deficit, along with City - State & Fedral Budget revenue collapses, Debt Bubble implosion still ongoing with no end in sight, US $ & foreign investment repatriation risk, the overhang of the Derivatives Crisis and most importantly - the VALUATION issue still remains...
Just like the July to Aug 22nd "move" of DOW 7702 to 9053... this too, shall pass.
My long-sided broad market "wake up call" is still set for sub 6,000.
When, not if...
The Global economy is worse, not better.
The US Economy is worse, not better...no real change in Cap Ex Spending, or Earnings...
prudentbear.com
Job Risk/Fear is worse, not better.
Mortgage Rates are now and may continue to be; worse, not better.
The Risk of ramping Crude Oil Prices, is greater, not less.
The Risk of another significant domestic Terrorist Act - is greater, not less.
The Account Deficit is greater, not less.
...and again, on any & all conservative accounting basis - this market is still not cheap enough... it's still THE VALUATIONS ~ |
