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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II
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To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (20541)10/22/2002 12:22:38 AM
From: terry richardson  Read Replies (1) of 36161
 
Douglas:

Can’t agree with you on nuclear. The long-term problems and costs of decommissioning passed on to our kids aren’t worth it in my opinion. But liquidize natural gas, especially the stranded gas around the world via the Fischer Tropsch method and you have a potential answer (Sasol and Rentech.) Also using the vast coal reserves in China and the US to produce liquid hydrocarbon fuels as the Germans did in WW II and S. Africa did when they were under sanctions is another (Sasol again). It’s all a matter of what price it becomes economical to do it. Thousands of acres of solar cells in the desert at a certain point will also become feasible I suppose but probably not at $20 Brent which is where some see it heading following US control of ME oil fields. Personally I don’t see the price going much under $20 for the simple reason that Bush’s friends would not like to see it. I mean what happens to the offshore and deep-water exploration industries when prices drop beyond a certain point?

There were reports a couple of years ago of a deal on a pipeline from the Caspian basin to China via Kazakhstan... JV between the Kazakh’s and Chinese I think, which a US controlled/constructed pipeline from the same area via Afghanistan would compete with but be much more complex to keep running if the Afghani’s start blowing it up every so often. I’m sure the Chinese are sitting back and waiting to see which of the competing pipelines offers the best deal. Probably use both and any others which pop up. Oh! what a scramble there is going to be to provide cheep energy to China. And what profits to be made as the rural Chinese and Chinese industry use more and more electricity and energy. But since the US and others are and have already moved heavy industry, tech and labor intensive industries to China in order to compete price wise on the world stage and the Chinese consumer buys more and more made in China goods, it seems to me that perhaps the West will only make patent rights fees eventually with the Chinese buying goods “Made in China”

As the Chinese become more and more prosperous what will it cost them to build and man a naval battle group with their low labor and materials costs versus the West? Or alternately what value an aircraft carrier when you can take it out with a mini-nuke on a fishing boat? These are the lessons that are about to be learned if we’re not careful IMHO..

Apologies for the rant guys... just got back from dining out with friends. A little wine, a movie (Gladiator for the umpteenth time, great movie) feeling good. Probably regret this in the morning.
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