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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 72.11

-0.3%

Nov 5 3:59 PM EST

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To: RetiredNow who wrote (62095)	10/22/2002 1:53:57 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) of 77397

Yeah, I agree, if Cisco can make their numbers. If they miss, then there will be a bloodbath in the markets. I have a theory about that. Cisco has one of the most advanced supply chains in the world, with customers doing their own demand planning etc. (well, I'm not sure if thats up and running yet actually but you get the idea). I think there is a great deal of "awareness" among the analyst community on cisco revs since there are hundreds of inflection points in the chain to do a channel check. So there is really very little chance of a huge surprise on the top line this late in the qtr. Early on, analysts may be venturing a guess based on somebody's knowledge of a big deal not closing etc- but not this late. Note I am not saying the qtr is good as far as revs are concerned- its probably light which is why the stock is trading at these levels. The surprises come in with the earnings and financials which no one is privy too. Since I have the MOST faith in the numbers people at cisco I don't think an earnings miss is really possible. My conclusion: the revs are bad but not truly terrible as some suspected before qtr end. The analysts know this. Earnings and GMs most likely will improve thanks to outstanding cisco mgmt, thats my hope anyway. This strength is really encouraging too. Mkt is not good for the networkers. Lizzie

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