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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: tradermike_1999 who started this subject10/23/2002 1:14:29 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
Fall report of the big six

Berlin(abstract) the 6 leading economy institutes do not
expect that the Hartz comission reforms will put a
significant number of people back to work. In view of the
economic realities the job market conditions do not look
good. The government should stress the growth more.

Instead of that the saving measures, introduced by the new
German government, will cut another half a percent off the
meager growth. The prediction of the six for this year is
0.4% growth and 1.4% in 2003. Because of the investments
due to floods (this is the ultimate irony, it takes
floods to make the east look better dj
) the east will
do better than the west.

Among targets of the criticism: the tax increases are
counterproductive due to their growth-dampening effect.
The Trade unions organisation (DGB) sees the predictions
as "too optimistic" and sides with DIW (one of the six,
Deutsche Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung), that predicts
0.9% only growth in 2003. The majority of institutes sets
too much on the "impulses from the world economy", which
does not make the report much useful as guideline for
economic policies...

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

GDP 2.0 2.5 0.6 0.4 1.4
Unemployment 4009 3889 3852 4050 4100
C. price index 0.6 1.9 2.5 1.4 1.6
deficit -1.5 1.1 -2.8 -3.2 -1.9

GDP in percent change y2y
Unemployment in 1000
CPI in changes % y2y
deficit in % nominal GDP
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