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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 306.28

-1.0%

Dec 4 4:00 PM EST

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To: robert b furman who wrote (6416)	10/23/2002 11:11:13 AM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) of 95525

That's one way to read it Robert. If you are right then the SOX should break out to new highs in the next two days. Unfortunately for the reason I express below I think by Friday it will be evident that the current run higher is over. Naturally this is just my opinion and I don't pretend to be able to see into the future but I think unless Iraq allows unconditional terms to any search for weapons this week the SOX is in trouble. I believe there is a direct correlation between the upward movement of the VIX, measuring fear, and the downward movement of the SOX. This has happened every time with some delay this entire last year at least. Combine that with what I perceive to be overly high RSI strengths for members of the SOX, upper Bollinger Band penetrations, an MACD Histogram that looks top heavy and you can see how I was able to forecast the impending fall of the SOX: stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[pb50,200!d20,2!c20!c10][vc60][iUb14!Uk14!La12,26,9]&pref=G Anyway, this bear market has finally taught me some patience. I got in too early on some current short sales trades but I am going to give them some time. We are currently well below the 50 day moving average on the SOX with the VIX up over 2 points. It will be tough for the SOX to rise while the VIX is rising. RtS

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