Domestic issues trump war in congressional races
By Jill Lawrence and William M. Welch, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — Economic issues matter most in the closest races that will determine which political party wins majorities in the House and Senate on Nov. 5, according to both Republican and Democratic candidates. Terrorism and the prospect of war with Iraq, they say, are not as important.
USA TODAY surveyed candidates in 21 races for the House and seven for the Senate that are too close to call. (Related item: House and Senate races to watch.) Their campaigns reflect what they say voters care most about: jobs, the economy and related concerns, such as retirement security and prescription-drug costs.
Local concerns
North Carolina: GOP Rep. Robin Hayes' vote, cast under pressure, to strengthen President Bush's hand in negotiating free-trade agreements. Hayes' district has been hit hard by textile layoffs.
Nevada: Yucca Mountain, cited as a top issue in the USA TODAY survey by Democrat Dario Herrera, running for the House in Las Vegas. Bush approved the repository in Nevada for spent nuclear fuel; some said that broke a campaign pledge.
New Mexico: Water, the top issue cited by Republican Steve Pearce in the state's arid 2nd District.
Maryland: Transportation, cited by GOP Rep. Connie Morella. The issue reflects commuter frustration in her suburban district adjoining Washington, D.C.
South Dakota: Drought, the top issue cited by Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson. Bush's veto of a bill containing drought aid undercut Republican challenger John Thune's argument that being close to Bush would help him get things done.
Arkansas: Republican Sen. Tim Hutchinson's divorce and his remarriage to a young aide. Hutchinson, who is facing Democrat Mark Pryor, had run in the past on family-values platforms.
In the House, Democrats need a net gain of six seats to win a majority, but the consensus is that Republicans likely will maintain an edge. Republicans need a net gain of one seat to gain a majority in the Senate, where Democrats have a 50-49 edge, with one independent. Most non-partisan political analysts predict a shift of no more than two Senate seats and say the odds slightly favor Democrats at the moment.
"For now, this political tug of war is playing to a draw," says Charles Cook of the non-partisan Cook Political Report.
The results of the survey of 28 races in 21 states reflect recent national polls, in which 30% or fewer say war and terrorism are their top concerns. Nearly half cite domestic issues — jobs and the economy, or health care and Social Security.
Not surprisingly, nearly all candidates in the 28 races are trumpeting plans to create jobs, defray prescription-drug costs, protect savings, preserve Social Security and improve education. Terrorism and a possible war with Iraq, after dominating headlines for two months, are fading from debate.
"What's going to swing the vote is jobs, prescription drugs, education and Social Security," says James Thurber, head of American University's Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies in Washington.
Fewer close races
There has been a dramatic decline in competitive House races this year. Right before the 1992 election, there were about 80 close House races, compared with about 30 today, says Larry Sabato, head of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
One reason for the decline in the number of close races: After House districts were reapportioned among the states following the 2000 Census, they were redrawn by Democrats and Republicans to make most incumbents safer than ever before. There also is little sentiment to "throw the rascals out" — a status-quo mood attributed to the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and the fact that the economy, while slow, is not in recession.
In the few close election contests remaining, Republicans are showing unusual strength. The party that inhabits the White House usually loses seats in Congress halfway through a president's term. In addition, an uncertain economy normally hurts the president's party. But Republicans are holding their own for at least three reasons: President Bush remains popular, House districts favor incumbents (and there are more Republican incumbents), and GOP candidates have taken popular positions on issues like jobs, education and prescription-drug costs.
To find out what matters most in the races that will determine who wins majorities in the next Congress, USA TODAY asked Democratic and Republican candidates to describe the mood and concerns of voters in their states or districts. Among the findings:
An overwhelming 34 of the 36 candidates who responded say voters are more likely to decide their vote on the economy and jobs than on terrorism and war.
All 20 Democrats ranked prescriptions or broader health-care concerns as among the top three issues in their state or district.
The economy and jobs were cited most often by Republicans as among their top three issues.
Recent corporate scandals are not a top issue, but Democrats are trying to capitalize on the anti-corporate public mood.
One-fourth of the tightest races may turn on local issues and personalities.
Of the 21 House districts, Republicans are defending 11 seats they now hold, Democrats five. Incumbents of both parties are pitted against each other in two revised districts; three new districts have no incumbent.
The pivotal races are unfolding in a climate of what Steve Rosenthal, political director of the AFL-CIO, calls "layered anxiety" over economic conditions and a looming war against Iraq.
There's little evidence that voters in these states and districts are in urgent economic distress. Unemployment has risen in four of the seven toss-up Senate states and 14 of the 21 House districts over the past year. But in most cases, it's up slightly and is at or below the national average of 5.6%.
Corporate bankruptcies and Wall Street's bear market have shrunk Americans' retirement savings and undermined confidence in the economy. But the impact is not immediate for people still working, and their savings may be recovered over time.
Jim Jordan, political director of the Democratic Senate campaign committee, says the election is about "doldrums" rather than crisis: "People aren't afraid they're losing their jobs," he says. "They're just having a hard time making ends meet."
Republicans agree. Party strategist Matthew Dowd says in a memo this month that the public is "very concerned" about the economy and believes it's going in the wrong direction. But he says it's a mistake to assume Democrats will benefit. So far, polls show, most voters are pessimistic about the economy but not assigning blame.
The pocketbook economy
Yet deadlocked races often hinge on a few thousand votes. Who wins could depend on which party those voters hold responsible for the economy, or who they believe has better solutions. Those races also may turn on local issues, candidates' personalities, which side has more money for TV ads and which side turns out more voters.
The contests are also subject to 11th-hour tides that can sweep elections to one party or the other. "This could be a very late-breaking thing. I've seen little waves develop over the last weekend" before an election, says Stuart Rothenberg, publisher of the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report.
Democrats in difficult races are almost unanimous in their emphasis on matters close to home; 17 of 20 say voters are more interested in their ability "to get things done" for their states or districts than their positions on national issues. A smaller majority of Republicans, 9 of 15, agreed.
The economy and jobs appear on 14 Republicans' lists of the top three issues and 12 Democrats' lists. Five Republicans cite taxes as a top issue; they're promoting cuts.
One Democratic House candidate, Martha Fuller Clark in New Hampshire, also highlights taxes. She says she wants to "provide middle-class tax cuts" with revenue gained "by closing offshore tax havens" for corporations.
That's an issue in the state's Senate race between Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen and GOP Rep. John Sununu. Shaheen has gained ground by criticizing Sununu's opposition to ending a tax break that permits U.S. companies that move headquarters out of the country to avoid paying taxes. But she's taken her own hits for proposing new taxes in a state with a historic aversion to taxes of any kind.
At least eight of the states with close races have experienced job losses at companies involved in corporate scandals. Qwest Communications, Tyco Electronics and WorldCom have laid off workers in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Maryland, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and South Dakota. But the only candidate to list corporate accountability among her top three issues is Democrat Jill Long Thompson in Indiana's 2nd district.
Although polls show that voters tend to associate the GOP with corporate America, scandal has not given Democrats the advantage they expected. In part, that's because most Republicans supported a new law in July that tightens corporate accounting practices. Also, Democrats have their own corporate ties.
Taking opponents' issues
Engaging Democrats directly on the issues that traditionally work to their advantage has been an effective strategy for Republicans this year. Sen. Tim Hutchinson, R-Ark., his party's most threatened incumbent, is perhaps its boldest practitioner.
In the USA TODAY survey, eight in 10 Democratic candidates named Social Security a top issue in their races, but Hutchinson was the only Republican. His other picks were prescription drugs and health care. He's airing a TV ad that says he wants "the same kind of commitment we saw on fighting terrorism" applied to a prescription-drug benefit for seniors. Hutchinson faces a tough re-election battle against state Attorney General Mark Pryor.
The twin threats of terrorism and Iraq figure significantly in just a handful of close races. Only three incumbent members of Congress in the top 28 races — Sen. Paul Wellstone, D-Minn., and House Republican centrists Jim Leach of Iowa and Connie Morella of Maryland — opposed this month's resolution authorizing the president to use force against Iraq. Leach and Morella come from liberal districts. Wellstone's Republican challenger, Norm Coleman, says he would have voted for the resolution and suggests Wellstone is out of the mainstream.
In South Dakota, Republican Rep. John Thune used a photo of Saddam Hussein in an ad suggesting Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson was soft on defense. But Johnson's son served in Afghanistan and could well be sent to Iraq.
Colorado Republican Bob Beauprez and Minnesota Republican John Kline are the two House candidates who told USA TODAY that voters in their districts are more likely to decide their vote based on terrorism and war than on jobs and the economy. Kline is challenging Democratic Rep. Bill Luther in a redrawn district. Luther says the local economy is getting worse and is a bigger worry for voters than war or terrorism.
The prevailing sense among strategists on both sides is that "it would take a flat-out actual war to distract the voters from the domestic issues which affect their day-to-day lives," says Ed Rendell, the former national Democratic Party chairman now running for governor of Pennsylvania.
"As long as Bush was able to keep this issue of Iraq alive, things were trending the Republicans' way," conservative strategist Paul Weyrich says. But with Congress in recess, he says, Democrats have time to "pound the economy. Can they get traction on it? Yeah, I think they can."
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