Don't you know? If reality gets bad to a certain point, then they rally on the hope that Greenspasm will lower rates again. So on Wallstreet, Great is Good, Good is Good, a little bad is not too bad, a lot bad is Good. It is very hard to watch reality be twisted, but I remember how unbelievable Nov, 1999 through April 2000 was. Just remember one of my favorite quotes -- "Fate cannot be stopped. Not by money or war."
Major bear markets have a way of sucking out most of the money from the most people. This current run now has the potential of turning a lot of bears into bulls again. It also is approaching the time frame where 99% believe the market will be good -- Nov. - March. Once this rally takes a huge bite out of those short, and then we have a new turn with most turning bullish, a brutal (and totally unexpected) down during the Nov.-March period would pretty much seal 95% of every participant's fate.
Unbelievable people are still willing to pay 34 PE for WMT, 26 PE for TYC (TYC for goodness sakes!), 30 PE for MSFT, 34 PE for AIG, 62 PE for BP, 44 PE for CSCO, etc. etc. etc.
This doesn't even attempt to understand AMAT at a PE of 872 -- up 10% today on a bad beige book!!!!! This is getting like the beginning of the old insane days. I feel sorry for those who understand nothing and totally trust the financial/broker/TV "experts.
I remain,
SOROS |
