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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands

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To: Nancy who wrote (9069)	10/23/2002 11:12:23 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie	of 57110

I have starred the years where buying October lows based on seasonality would be questionable. Also, given the 18% move already, unless we are back in the mania, we have pretty much exhausted this move. Classic bear market rally. The 90/91 season did hit bottom in October, but the move into January 1991 was minimal. The move from January lows to April highs was 42% The 91/92 season, November lows were equal to the October lows, with a rally in between. The rally starting in late December went up 25% into the February highs. From the February highs to the April lows, most of those gains were lost. 92/93 was a perfect example of "seasonality" with a 31% gain from October lows to April Highs 93/94 Highs of the year were reached in October and November lows were 10% lower than October levels. The move from the November lows into the April highs were about 10%. 94/95 December lows were 4% lower than October lows. From the December lows, the move up to the highs in July was about 45% 95/96 October lows and December lows were 2pts different. Rally starts in December and goes 29% into June highs. 96/97 October lows were the halfway point from the July rally from 1017 to the January highs at 1400. January to April was a 200+ point drop. 97/98 October lows were 6% higher than the January lows. However the October highs were about 20% higher than the January lows. The rally from the January lows into the April highs was about 31% 98/99 October lows were a perfect buy with a 111% move into July Highs. 99/00 October lows would again be a perfect buy with nearly a 100% move into March highs. *00/01 Buying October lows would be akin to suicide with a 50% loss into april. 01/02 Buying Sept/Oct lows was a great buy into the January highs with nearly a 50% move.

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