So where are we?
I think that we are at or near the top of a rounding top that will take us to significant lows in the next two to three months.
I believe that we are in a setup that is similar to the April 01 lows, but with a compressed time window.
Please read this post by the_phoenix as it builds a foundation for my thoughts.
Bearish three drives from the_phoenix
Message 18149995
Three Drives April/May 01
stockcharts.com[r,a]daclyyay[d20001024,20010924][pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9][j7747270,y]&listNum=1
Three Drives October 02
stockcharts.com[r,a]daclyyay[d20020401,20021024][pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9][j7747310,y]&listNum=1
Other patterns of interest
01
stockcharts.com[r,a]dhclynay[d20000601,20010423][pb50!b200!b30!b20][iub14][J7750957,Y]&pref=G
02
stockcharts.com[r,a]dhcaynay[pb50!b200][iub14][J7750969,Y]&listNum=1
01/02
stockcharts.com[r,a]dhcaynay[d20000724,20021024][pb50!b200][iub14][J7751132,Y]&listNum=1
My thinking is that we *will* have capitulation selling at the end of this move down, but that getting there is going to be tough on both bears and bulls alike. Look at the period from May to Sept 01 for what I think is in store for us.
I think that next earnings warning season coupled with EOY selling is what is going to bring about the capitulation. So I am looking for lows in December. But I wouldn't be surprised if they were in January. |
