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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: Earlie who wrote (199915)10/24/2002 11:33:35 AM
From: zonder  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
Re BBBY

I have the same itch to sell BBBY but hesitate for now because:
1) While there emerge some serious issues with the US housing market re high mortgage leverage, I would hesitate to say that "the residential real estate market is (...) cooling" - just a few days ago, it was announced that housing starts surged 13.3% in September, to 16-year high.
2) There is a time lag between cooling in housing market and cooling in sales of a retailer like BBBY, who caters to homes already finished - it will follow the downturn in the housing market with about a six month lag, I would imagine.

So I would suggest playing the expected downturn in housing market through mortgage lenders and homebuilders, rather than retailers like BBBY.

Of course these are rather long term thoughts. If you feel BBBY will be lower in a week's time than where it is now, you are probably right.

Regards,
Z.
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