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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch

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To: stockman_scott who wrote (8364)10/24/2002 2:14:31 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) of 89467
 
nice dig, we are seeing total bifurcation on bond market

Trez have been safe and rallying like crazy
then two weeks ago a big big break to that momentum
now that is a broken yield chart !!!
finance.yahoo.com

behind the Trez parade is the deteriorating MortgBackeds
Fanny Mae recently raised the fee on cashout REFI's
MGIC showing pain as defaults rise
wherever the underpinning finance is contrived, rigged, and corrupted, the house falls in time
all in time

corp bonds are not benefitting AT ALL from the better rate environment surprisingly
people in a panic are selling the corps and buying the Trez
thus creating a wide wide (and not improving) bond spread

THE SPREAD OF CORP YIELD OVER TREASURYS IS THE LEADING TRIGGER OF DERIVATIVE EVENTS
they are coming, sure as shooting
the Brazilian elections and policy changes afterwards will be extremely critical imho regarding the fate of JPMorgo and Citi
huge vulnerability here
remember: politicians make their biggest mistakes under stress
the IMF and numerous dumbshit PhD Economists have contributed mightily toward the destruction of Argentina, Uruguay, and Brazil
the climax events are soon in coming!!!

junk bonds have gone from bad to worse to shitty to pathetic to a dead zone
no recovery in junk, no recovery in economy

Mauldin looks to his Three Amigos for guidance:
- mfg cap utilization (dropping to new lows)
- consumer confidence (dropping to new lows)
- junk bonds (still a dead zone)

thus, no recovery, pure dumbfark stock rally
rally because people are buying
not because of ANY signals of recovery
destined to fade soon
/ jim
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