CSCO buy/sell plan:
I'm holding a lot of CSCO I bought at 14.5-15 in 4/02.
Resistance levels at 12, 15, and 21.
If the rally in the Nas continues, CSCO will get through resistance at 12, and go to 15. 15 would mean a near-doubling off the recent lows. Assuming we are still in a Bear Market, and assuming there is nothing special about CSCO that will allow it to go against the market trend, then I can assume this 3-week-long rally will fail at some point, and the stock will at least retest recent lows.
After listening to a bunch of CCs, and reading this quarter's 10Qs, in a variety of companies (from biotech to housing, and several tech sectors), the consensus seems to be: Managements are a lot less sure, now, that business conditions are past the trough. There was about a 2-quarter time period, where managements were saying "the bottom is in, we are seeing a rebound in orders/pricing/margins/sales, and the only question is how how steep the rebound is." Now, they are all (across all these sectors) saying, "in the last part of 3Q03, we saw a sudden sharp weakening in those parameters, so the 1Q02-2Q02 rebound may have just been a false start."
Shorting on any doubling of CSCO will be profitable, IMO.
At 15, I'll sell my entire long position, and turn around and short CSCO. I'll short in increments, probably adding to my short position every 3 points further advance the stock makes. Depending on how big a short position I have when this rally dies, I'll cover in the 8-12 area, in increments. If the Nas rallies to 1600, I plan to have more cash and shorts than long positions. Currently holding short positions just initiated, in QCOM at 36, and CMH (housing stock) at 12. |
