Tyco International Limited (TYC) Message Board

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Non-Tech : Tyco International Limited (TYC)

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To: Larry S. who wrote (3593)	10/24/2002 3:09:30 PM
From: RGM	Read Replies (1) of 3770

I liked TYC with a P/E of around $8 given the certainty or "overhead" with this stock. Also, the forward eps growth is a big uncertainty. Sorry guys - I am not optimistic that we are coming out of a recession. I remember all the bull a couple of years ago when everybody said it was just a one year dip before they officially labeled it a recession. Just think how rich you would be if you shorted the techs during the summer of 2000. We are in a 5 - 7 year business cycle. Maybe halfway through it? I believe our recent "bottom" is not the ultimate bottom we shall experience during this multiyear recession. Historically, the market has usually been around 10%-15% BELOW the S&P 500 Index's average P/E to factor in the risk factors. Obviously, according to the above historical fact, this market is still overpriced and I do not care whatsoever about the interest rates on 10 yr govt bonds. During the early 1970s when I was working in the Comptroller's Dept. at the HQ of a Fortune 12 corp., (ITT), the S&P 500 Index's average P/E was around 8. At ITT, I was part of Harold Geneen's financial planning and control organization. You have to be as old as I am and familiar with Geneen's reputation and track record to know where I am coming from. I believe that we shall eventually return to the valuation levels of the 1970s before coming out of this recession. Re: Manipulation - Not by Tyco's mgmt., but by the Wall St. big boys (via the media) to scare weak longs out of their positions. If you do not believe there has been such "manipulation" then take off your rose-colored glasses! P.S. - I am writing this reply as I am also watching the realtime price action of Cryolife (CRY), but that's another story..............Rob

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