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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU)
LU 2.550+2.4%Dec 1 3:59 PM EST

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To: GVTucker who wrote (21025)10/24/2002 9:06:05 PM
From: bofp  Read Replies (1) of 21876
 
GV,

Actually, only the management pension plan is underfunded, yielding the charge to equity. The larger pension plan for operating personnel remains significantly overfunded. While LU can not transfer the surplus from one plan to another, it is also important to note that LU will not be required to pay any cash into the underfunded plan for at least FY03 and probably FY04 as well. If we are concerned about cash balances and liquidity vis a vis bankruptcy, the pension plan is a non issue for the next two years.

As far as the dilution already happening - au contraire. The degree of dilution will depend entirely on the price of a LU share at the time of the August 04 Put. If the price is still less than $1, the dilution is 4 times what it would be at a $4 conversion. This is why LU is buying in the convertable NOW.

As to why the stock was up today - I would point to the SBC conference call, where CEO Ed Whitacre made a plea for regulatory relief, stating that LU and NT must survive for the future of US telecommunications. Sort of give me what I want, or I'll shoot this dog. Since FCC chairman Powell is on record as saying essentially the same thing, many investors are thinking that the trienniel review of UNE-P regulation will give the RBOCs relief.

Also: Bloomberg reported that both VZ and BLS have given LU baselevel commitments for CY03, suggesting a reason for LU's confidence in the March quarter.

There was also a hedgefund going extremely LONG LU for most of the day.
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