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Strategies & Market Trends : Z Best Place to Talk Stocks
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To: Ron McKinnon who wrote (44324)10/25/2002 10:46:45 AM
From: DanZ  Read Replies (2) of 53068
 
I have no position in AMZN and don't plan to take one. For whatever reason, I consider it a dot com instead of a retailer and I don't like messing with any of those stocks. That said, if Amazon.com earns 12 cents per share this year, 23 cents per share in 2003, 35 cents per share in 2004, and 50 cents per share in 2005, it would represent an annual growth in earnings of about 80% with the growth between 2004 and 2005 of 43%. Assuming that expectations in 2005 are for continued growth at about the same rate, I think that AMZN would trade at a higher multiple than 30. Of course, that also depends on the market environment at the time. There are far too many factors that play into stock prices to predict with any certainty what price AMZN will trade for in 2005. As you said, Ron, place your bet and wait to see if you were right. I'd rather invest in MTXX over the next three years because I think that they have a better chance of growing from $20 million in sales to $100 million in sales (5x increase) than AMZN does of growing their sales 5x last year's 3.1 billion, which would put them at $15.5 billion in sales in 2004. I don't think that they can grow that much over the next three years, but I do think that MTXX will.

0.12 this year and $0.23 in 2003
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