suspect that the shape of the world order construct for the forseeable future is a continuation and consolidation of recent trends, namely
(a) Europe will enjoy life,
(b) China will export goods and then services,
(c) Japan, money,
(d) US, soldiers,
(e) MiddleEast, oil,
(f) Russia, weapons,
(g) AustraAsia, Canada, South Africa, resources,
(h) India, Pakistan, N.Korea, Africa, Latin America, SE Asia, fiscal crisis, financial storms, WMD chaos, drugs, and geopolitical turmoil.
My view:
(a) Europe with its increasing Muslim immigration will enjoy life like an ostrich with cephaulus in sand until a 9/11-type KABOOM! hits it. Recall that France came within a hair of having the Eiffel Tower downed. Much dislocation afterwards. Europe is absolutely not immune from the Muslim whackos. The Russian theater thing is just a taste, even if only Russian specific.
Book it. When it happens, the shock will be far greater than in the US, which is a far more resilient society.
(b)China will export goods and then services, but will have a hard time defining its foreign policy,
(c)Japan will export money, at least the amounts not necessary to defend itself as N. Korean threat looms and to take care of its aging population base.
(d)US will export soldiers, to the relief of the rest of the world. It will also export huge amounts of high-margin pharmaceutical, electronic, and entertainment intellectual property which the world will continue to consume by the mega-tons. The hegemon will become the hyper-hegemon, economically and militarily.
The US will also export values--don't laugh--which will change the face of the world, despite criticism that it doesn't live by them. These values include religious tolerance, enterprise, freedom of the individual, rule of law, etc., and will slowly change the world for the better. Hint: Think of values as tangible economic things which have utterly predictable economic consequences.
(e) Middle East, oil. And insane religious fanaticism which will be slowly defeated by the US led values exports.
(f) Russia, weapons. And oil.
(g) AustraAsia, Canada, South Africa, resources. Except for SA, it is these countries that will enjoy life, not the Europeans.
(h) India, Pakistan, N.Korea, Africa, Latin America, SE Asia, fiscal crisis, financial storms, WMD chaos, drugs, and geopolitical turmoil. Agreed. And this is the place where the big values wars will take place. |
