9-month cycle
Preferred Schedule: 10-, 20-, and 40-week cycles lows at Sep 21 and Jul 23
cycle tendencies
10-week 20-week 40-week SPX change high low range
Sep 21 start start start 965 none
Oct 16 green green green 1097 +132 1101 +136 N.A. N.A.
Nov 7 yellow green green 1115 + 18 1126 + 29 1052 - 42 74
Nov 30 red yellow green 1139 + 24 1163 + 48 1054 - 61 109
Dec 26 green yellow green 1149 + 10 1173 + 34 1114 - 25 59
Jan 16 yellow red yellow 1127 - 22 1177 + 28 1127 - 22 50
Feb 8 red red yellow 1096 - 31 1139 + 12 1078 - 49 61
Mar 5 green green yellow 1146 + 50 1157 + 61 1074 - 22 83
Mar 28 yellow green yellow 1147 + 1 1173 + 27 1131 - 15 42
Apr 19 red yellow red 1125 - 22 1148 + 1 1099 - 48 49
May 14 green yellow red 1096 - 29 1125 NC 1049 - 76 76
Jun 6 yellow red red 1029 - 67 1106 + 10 1027 - 69 79
Jun 28 red red red 990 - 39 1033 + 4 953 - 76 80
Jul 23 --- --- --- 798 -198 994 + 4 796 -194 198
Aug 15 green green green 930 +132 933 +135 775 - 23 158
Sep 9 yellow green green 903 - 27 965 + 35 870 - 60 95
Oct 1 red yellow green 848 - 55 924 + 21 800 -103 124
Oct 24 green yellow green 882 + 34 903 + 55 768 - 80 135
Nov 18 yellow red yellow 897 + 15 897 + 15 877 - 5 20
Dec 10 red red yellow
Jan 2 green green yellow
Jan 27 yellow green yellow
Feb 18 red yellow red
Mar 13 green yellow red
Apr 7 yellow red red
Apr 29 red red red
Alternate Schedule: 10-, 20-, and 40-week cycles fixed with base at Sep 21 low
cycle tendencies
10-week 20-week 40-week SPX change high low range
Sep 21 start start start 965 none
Oct 16 green green green 1097 +132 1101 +136 N.A. N.A.
Nov 7 yellow green green 1115 + 18 1126 + 29 1052 - 42 74
Nov 30 red yellow green 1139 + 24 1163 + 48 1054 - 61 109
Dec 26 green yellow green 1149 + 10 1173 + 34 1114 - 25 59
Jan 16 yellow red yellow 1127 - 22 1177 + 28 1127 - 22 50
Feb 8 red red yellow 1096 - 31 1139 + 12 1078 - 49 61
Mar 5 green green yellow 1146 + 50 1157 + 61 1074 - 22 83
Mar 28 yellow green yellow 1147 + 1 1173 + 27 1131 - 15 42
Apr 19 red yellow red 1125 - 22 1148 + 1 1099 - 48 49
May 14 green yellow red 1096 - 29 1125 NC 1049 - 76 76
Jun 6 yellow red red 1029 - 67 1106 + 10 1027 - 69 79
Jun 28 red red red 990 - 39 1033 + 4 953 - 76 80
Jul 23 green green green 798 -198 994 + 4 796 -194 198
Aug 14 yellow green green 919 +121 920 +122 775 - 23 145
Sep 6 red yellow green 894 - 25 965 + 46 870 - 49 95
Oct 1 green yellow green 848 - 46 924 + 30 800 - 94 124
Oct 24 yellow red yellow 882 + 34 903 + 55 768 - 80 135
Nov 15 red red yellow 897 + 15 897 + 15 877 - 5 20
Dec 10 green green yellow
Jan 2 yellow green yellow
Jan 24 red yellow red
Feb 18 green yellow red
Mar 13 yellow red red
Apr 4 red red red
Alternate Schedule: 10-, 20-, and 40-week cycles fixed with base at Oct 10 low
cycle tendencies
10-week 20-week 40-week SPX change high low range
Oct 10 start start start 768 none
Nov 4 green green green 897 +129 903 +135 N.A. N.A.
Nov 27 yellow green green
Dec 19 red yellow green
Jan 13 green yellow green
Feb 5 yellow red yellow
Feb 27 red red yellow
Mar 24 green green yellow
Apr 16 yellow green yellow
May 8 red yellow red
Jun 2 green yellow red
Jun 25 yellow red red
Jul 17 red red red
22-week cycle
Sep 21 SPX trough 966 (week 1)
Dec 7 midpoint SPX crest 1158 (week 11)
Jan 4 actual SPX crest 1176 (week 15)
Feb 22 SPX trough 1090 (week 22)
Mar 22 actual SPX crest 1174 (week 4)
May 10 midpoint SPX crest 1055 (week 11)
Jul 26 SPX trough 853 (week 22)
Aug 22 actual SPX crest 965 (week 4)
Oct 11 midpoint SPX crest 843 (week 11)
Dec 27 SPX trough ??? (week 11)
26-week Dow cycle troughs
Oct 9, 98 Dow 7379
Apr 9, 99 Dow 9826 length 26 weeks
Oct 22, 99 Dow 9884 length 28 weeks
Mar 10, 00 Dow 9611 length 20 weeks
Oct 20, 00 Dow 9571 length 32 weeks
Mar 23, 01 Dow 9106 length 22 weeks
Sep 21, 01 Dow 8062 length 26 weeks
Feb 8, 02 Dow 9580 length 20 weeks
Jul 24, 02 Dow 7532 length 24 weeks
sample size 8
total 200 weeks
average 25 weeks
st dev 2 weeks
next approximate Dow trough
Dec 10, 02 20 weeks minimum length in sample
Jan 14, 03 25 weeks average length in sample |
