Hello Hoa Hao, Welcome back. <<I think the bottom is about in>> ... but, importantly, not yet in, and, crucially, may be another 30-50% away. I am working on my Script for 2003 (a promising year for bad news), and will come back to this point when done.
<<China gets it's collect(ivist) act together and becomes more democratic and successful economically>> coincidence that you should mention this Message 18118146
On Taiwan, of its 21 mm folks, fully 1 mm of the most productive have been directly absorbed by the Mainland as of now, with probably another 2-3 mm indirectly embraced.
On NMD, I believe a system designed for failure will fail, but cost a bundle while doing so. There are simply too many ways to deliver death, including by old fishing boats and new freighter launched low flying cruise missiles.
On N.Korea, I believe it is the difficult problem in a crowded neighborhood without clean options, making Iraq a side show for Asia. I believe China, Russia, Japan and S.Korea will, net net, do absolutely nothing except build big kabooms as a minimum response, just in case. As usual, the US will have to volunteer and do the dirty work, per role designated in my earlier post Message 18141226
I have the impression that the N.Koreans are less amenable to bargaining with the only chip they got, and do suicides just as readily as any, but without needing ancient religion as a faith. If I were its neighbors on bad terms, I would start deploying anti-mini-submarine nets 200 km offshore.
I believe when the Israelis see how intractable the N.Korea problem is, they may try to do something unilaterally in Iraq, to trigger a showdown and rope in the US, willy by the nilly.
Chugs, Jay |
