Thanks Augie. On lookiing both those charts i find myself focusing on the chart commencing on jan4,1999 and then focusing in on oct through december 2001 and our present moment and i ask the central question are we going repeat the 2001 scenario?? I go to my QQQ chart where i looked for prolonged oversold run-ups and the Oct thru December 2001 was prime. see chart stockcharts.com[g,a]dhclyyay[df][pc5!c8!c13!c20!c50!d20,2][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!li5,5!lh10,10!lp14,3,3!lf14][j7744913,y]&listNum=1
My notation "10/24 This the worst possible case for," Should read "This the worst possible case for shorts,"
Trimtabs concluded the primary underlying dynamic then was relentless pension fund buying(last year),and PF buying is mindless and robotic and has a hideous track record.And have a historical propensity to load up at far too high P/Es.
Question are these incompetents going to do it AGAIN!!!!???
Plus , we ask, how much is JPQ feeling intense pressure to get back into the market out of need for that 20% annual yield and not miss the boat for the "new bull market."(keeping in mind the average investor is extraordinarily easy to sucker by sustained up movement.)
It is in the balance these questions going into next week; but one need recognize a major exception from last year's scenario be this, our trailing P/Es are much higher now at this level than at these levels last year and with even the bull economist saying future growth will be SLOW.(i say we will go negative again some time in 2003).
My bottomline is two scenarios, one this proves to be a relentless baseless mindless up run; but because of P/E issues, it will commence the process of crashing and burning as we approach ThanksGiving.
The other one is we did not beat those 10/23 highs today, and the 10/25 NASI is just short of a bullish 13/50 ema crossing and we will stagger and then start slip,slipping away only to rally again to near the present levels as we stumble into 2003.
Going into this week i, who have nothing at stake, and nothing to sweat(and i FEEL GUILTY thinking of those who are short now and suffering pain while i am wimp neutral), as i await the completion of my other transaction i am 70-30 suspecting this mindless run will continue. i need to see a bear victory. A selling off from the get go Monday that breaks through 952 on the NDX(and closes below 962) would be such a victory.
Regards my transaction, having this week received a 100% increase in deposit i granted an extension of closing to 12/2/2002.Why?; because if my buyer were to die now the deposit is at a level where it would be to my benefit:) (SICK!!!!) PaxMax |
